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In this 10-minute analysis, the latest from Steve Miller reveals a precise bearish options strategy executed on Home Depot (HD). The video details a bearish diagonal spread that has already generated a $1,441 profit, with the host explaining why he's taking profits now instead of waiting for a larger move. The core thesis is based on a multi-timeframe technical analysis, showing HD testing cycle lows on the monthly chart, with the next synchronized low across monthly, weekly, and daily cycles not expected until late summer. This creates a window for another potential bearish play. The analysis breaks down the exact structure of the initial trade—buying a June $410 put and selling a near-term $375 put—and explores the mechanics and potential outcomes of rolling the short leg. It also contrasts this view with a continued bullish outlook on IWM, highlighting a strategic divergence in the current market...
A multi-timeframe technical analysis on Home Depot (HD) reveals a critical juncture, with price testing cycle lows on the monthly chart. The next synchronized low across monthly, weekly, and daily cycles is projected for late summer (July-August), framing the market's intermediate-term trajectory.
This analysis spotlights a real-world bearish diagonal spread trade that has already locked in a $1,441 profit. It details the rationale for taking profits now and outlines the plan to structure a new bearish options play with longer-dated expirations (July/August) to align with the projected cycle low. Meanwhile, IWM maintains a bullish structural outlook despite broader market adjustments.
The strategy hinges on precise timing and cycle analysis. A premature or failed move to new lows could invalidate the bearish setup, while any significant rally before the summer low window would pressure the new bearish position. Managing the roll of the short put leg is crucial for optimizing risk/reward.
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